One of the most powerful pieces of information you can use to evaluate your actions as a trader is a trading log. With each trade, you should keep track of your thoughts and actions so you can improve your approach to trading. Here are some of the popular entries in a trading log:
1. Date
2. Time
3. Entry price
4. Number of lots opened
5. Initial Protective Stop level
6. Reason for entering into the trade
7. Target price (if any)
8. Exit price
9. Reason for exiting out of the trade
10. Result
After you have logged at least 10 trades, you can go back to compare your thoughts to how the market reacted after your entry. Some questions to ask yourself include:
1. How did the market trade after I entered into the trade?
2. If the trade was profitable, how far did the market move against me before reversing?
3. If the trade was a loss, how profitable did the trade become before reversing?
4. Where was my protective stop at the beginning of the trade and at the end of the trade?
5. What was the direction of the trend on the daily chart when I opened the trade?
6. If the trade was profitable, how much of the move did I catch?
7. How close was I to the ideal entry point of the move and how could I improve that?
8. Was there a news release or other factor in the move of the market after entry?
9. Could I have managed the trade better?
10. Was my position size good or does it need to be adjusted?
[Why ForexGen]
1. Lowest spreads in the market with 0-1 pip spread in 10 pairs, no commissions, no swaps and instant account Activation.
2. Scandinavian quality with Swiss precision, funds secured and local agents in 18+ countries.
3. ForexGen offers Forex trading in the major currency pairs and crosses.
4. Low capital start, with $250 as a minimum account size.
5. Liquidity and 24/5 availability are the characteristic factors of the Forex market compared with other financial markets.
6. [ForexGen] offers a free trial Forex [demo account] that allows you to test your skills and practice without risking real money.
Tuesday 30 December 2008
Keep a Trading Log to Analyze Your Actions
Top 5 Most Market Moving Indicators For The USD
When it comes to the currency market, most traders will use either technical or fundamental analysis or a combination of both to formulate their strategy, However, even for the casual currency trader, news or event risk can have a dramatic influence on the long and short-term price action of a currency pair.
In this report, we examine the 5 most market moving indicators for the US dollar (we update this report annually) against the Euro. The reason for our focus on the EUR/USD is its status as the most actively traded - and therefore benchmark – currency pair.
Economic Data is Important for Both Fundamental and Technical Traders
It is irrefutable that news or economic data can elicit a sharp reaction from currencies and other financial markets. However not all economic data is created equal. The monthly Non–farm payrolls for example has had a far bigger impact on the US dollar than other perennial top market movers like consumer prices. Indicators rarely keep their same level of influence over a currency though; so it common to see major shifts in the top ranking from year to year.
For example, over the past year, the worst contraction in the US housing market in a quarter century has led indicators like new and existing home sales to crowd out top releases from previous years – like ISM manufacturing. Also, what may create a lasting move in a currency on a day to day basis could be different from what triggers a knee jerk reaction in the US dollar. The top 5 most market moving indicators for the US dollar on a day to day basis are:
1. Non-Farm Payrolls
2. ISM Non-Manufacturing
3. Personal Spending
4. Inflation (Consumer Price Index)
5. Existing Home Sales
Unlike the other numbers, the non-farm payrolls report consistently topped the list of most market moving indicators for the US dollar. As the US economy slowed in 2007 and into 2008, the stability of the labor market was closely watched by all traders and analysts because of its broad ramifications for the overall economy.
ForexGen offers three types of business partnerships:
*Introducing Broker
*White label
*Money Manager
ForexGen Introducing Brokers, White Label and Money Manager holders are recognized as a strategic business partners. The main focus of our service is to satisfy our partner's needs in order to deal with a qualified service and gain a huge income sharing plan.
[ForexGen] provide appropriate services satisfying the needs of all business partner's specified situation and requirements.
Gaps in the Forex Market
One of the main differences between a stock market and the FX market is that the FX market is a true 24 hour a day market. Trading is continuous around the clock and really only is closed on weekends due to the lack of volume rather than an actual close.
The result of this is that you very rarely see gaps on the FX related charts. A gap is when the open of one session is far enough away from the previous close to leave an actual gap on the chart. There can be many gaps on stock market related charts since the market stops trading late in the afternoon and will not reopen until early the next morning.
If a company’s earnings are released after the close, the next day’s opening price can be much higher or lower than the previous close. Any news item that causes a shift in the opinion of the value of the market can result in a gap on the chart. In the FX market, you do not see these gaps during the week as the market is open and trading. However, you can see gaps between the Friday closing price and the Sunday open
[ForexGen Introducing Brokers]
Introducing Brokers may be individuals or institutions who gain their income from the commissions and/or rebates by introducing customers to ForexGen trading.
WHAT are the advantages of being an INTRODUCING BROKERS with ForexGen?
* Providing the most huge income sharing plan
* Providing several ways for our IB's to charge commission.
* ForexGen IB can also charge commission for each lot the traders execute.
* Moreover, ForexGen IB is able to increase the spread for all or certain clients and have ForexGen Investments rebate the difference.
In case the IB does not increase the spread or charge their clients a commission, ForexGen rebate the IB a minor predefined amount for every client's executed lot.
Commission is paid out every month.
Individualized Service
[ForexGen] offers our IB's individualized service created according to the individual needs and specified business situation for each IB.
Our Introducing Broker program provides a highly organized program for individualized services and organizations in order to introduce their clients to the online foreign currency exchange market, moreover they will enjoy the benefits of being a part of the ForexGen family.
ForexGen offers 1 pip spread on 10 pairs with high trading techniques that make [ForexGen]
incomparable to any other rival.
Currency Trading with a Strategy
Trading successfully is by no means a simple matter. It requires time, market knowledge and market understanding and a large amount of self restraint. We does not manage accounts, nor does it give market advice, that is the job of money managers and introducing brokers. As market professionals, we can however point the novice in the right direction and indicate what are correct trading tactics and considerations and what is total nonsense.
Anyone who says you can consistently make money in foreign exchange markets is being untruthful. Foreign exchange by nature, is a volatile market. The practice of trading it by way of margin increases that volatility exponentially. We are therefore talking about a very 'fast market' which is naturally inconsistent. Following that precept, it is logical to say that in order to make a successful trade, a trader has to take into account technical and fundamental data and make an informed decision based on his perception of market sentiment and market expectation. Timing a trade correctly is probably the most important variable in trading successfully but invariably there will be times where a traders' timing will be off. Don't expect to generate returns on every trade.
Let's enumerate what a trader needs to do in order to put the best chances for profitable trades on his side:
Trade with money you can afford to lose:
Trading fx markets is speculative and can result in loss, it is also exciting, exhilarating and can be addictive. The more you are 'involved with your money' the harder it is to make a clear-headed decision. Money you have earned is precious, but money you need to survive should never be traded.
Identify the state of the market:
What is the market doing? Is it trending upwards, downwards, is it in a trading range. Is the trend strong or weak, did it begin long ago or does it look like a new trend that's forming. Getting a clear picture of the market situation is laying the groundwork for a successful trade.
Determine what time frame you're trading on:
Many traders get in the market without thinking when they would like to get out, after all the goal is to make money. This is true but when trading, one must extrapolate in his mind's eye the movement that one expects to happen. Within this extrapolation, resides a price evolution during a certain period of time. Attached to this is the idea of exit price. The importance of this is to mentally put your trade in perspective and although it is clearly impossible to know exactly when you will exit the market, it is important to define from the outset if you'll be 'scalping' (trying to get a few points off the market) trading intra-day, or going longer term. This will also determine what chart period you're looking at. If you trade many times a day, there's no point basing your technical analysis on a daily graph, you'll probably want to analyse 30 minute or hour graphs. Additionally it is important to know the different time periods when various financial centers enter and exit the market as this creates more or less volatility and liquidity and can influence market movements.
[ForexGen Money Manager]
An individual who is responsible for the entire financial portfolio of another individual or another entity. A money manager receives payment in exchange for choosing and monitoring appropriate investments for the client.
Benefits of being a Money Manager with [ForexGen]:
* Providing three different commission sources.
* Weekly commission plan.
* Easy & fast commission withdrawals.
* Fixed percentage of the profits.
* P = k * D “P=Profit, k=Variable Parameter, D=Deposits”
The money manager gets a fixed percentage of the profit previously agreed upon with the client for managing the client funds as a bonus feature.
The most competitive trading conditions:
* 2 pips spread on six currency pairs.
* Providing online trading services without maintenance margin, margin call and no automatic closing of positions below the initial margin on weekdays for accounts with initial equity of up to $1 million US. The margin level have to be recognized Fridays at 23:00 CET and before public holidays.
* Leverages up to 1:200 for accounts up to $1 million US.
* Liquidity and 24/5 availability are the characteristic factors of the Forex market compared with other financial markets.
The Most Popular Indicators Used in Forex
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD)
What is it?
The MACD is one of the most popular oscillator used by currency traders. This is a momentum indicator can be used to confirm trends, while also indicating reversals, or overbought/oversold conditions. The MACD is calculated by taking the difference between the 2 exponential moving averages. The two that is usually used are the 26-day and 12-day moving averages.
How can MACD be used for trading?
Crossovers
The most common way to use the MACD is to buy/sell a currency pair when it crosses the signal line or zero. A sell signal occurs when the MACD falls below the signal line, while a buy signal occurs when the MACD rallies above the signal line.
Overbought/Oversold
The MACD can also be used as an overbought/oversold indicator. When the shorter moving average moves away significantly from the longer moving average (i.e., the MACD rises), it is likely that the currency price’s movements are starting to exhaust and will soon return to more realistic levels.
Divergences
When the MACD diverges from the trend of the currency price, this may signal a trend reversal. In addition, if the MACD makes a new low while the currency pair does not also make a new low, this is a bearish divergence, indicating a possible oversold condition. Alternatively, if the MACD is making new highs while the currency pair fails to confirm these highs, this is a bullish divergence, indicating a possible overbought condition.
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Monday 29 December 2008
Stocks Up After GMAC Lifeline, Retail Sales Dip
Wall Street rises modestly as GMAC qualifies for gov't help but holiday spending drops 
The major indexes finished the week with losses, but the market nonetheless showed further signs of stability.
The news from the retailing sector was far from surprising: Americans spent much less on gifts this season than they did last year, according to SpendingPulse, a division of MasterCard Advisors. Retail sales dropped between 5.5 percent and 8 percent compared with last year, the data showed, or between 2 percent and 4 percent after stripping out auto and gas sales.
Ever since the Thanksgiving weekend, it has been widely expected that this holiday season would be dismal, and analysts believe that a great deal of the poor economic news of late, including weak holiday spending, has been factored into stock prices.
Still, personal consumption is a huge part of U.S. economic activity -- comprising more than two-thirds of gross domestic product -- so Wall Street remains concerned that a more frugal consumer could keep the economy weak in 2009. The market will be paying close attention to the Conference Board's December survey on consumer confidence, to be released on Tuesday. The survey will include data on consumers' expectations for the future.
Investors did get a some good news on Christmas Eve, when the Federal Reserve allowed GMAC Financial Services -- the finance arm of struggling Detroit automaker General Motors Corp. -- to become a bank holding company and thus qualify for the government's $700 billion rescue fund. Analysts had said that without financial help, GMAC might have had to file for bankruptcy protection or shut down.
There was little conviction behind Friday's advance, which the market managed after stocks meandered for much of the session. With just three full trading days left in the year, no news has been upbeat enough to spark a big year-end rally, a consequence of the great uncertainty still in the market. December is usually a strong month for stocks, and a flurry of trading known as a "Santa Claus rally" is often seen in the final week.
"I think we could have a year-end rally, but it's got a formidable headwind in the form of tax-selling, in my view," said Hugh Johnson, chairman and chief investment officer of Johnson Illington Advisors. Tax-loss selling is when investors sell their poorly-performing stocks to realize a loss for the year, which can reduce their taxes in upcoming years.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 47.07, or 0.56 percent, to 8,515.55 after Thursday's market holiday.
Broader stock indicators also rose. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 4.65, or 0.54 percent, to 872.80, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 5.34, or 0.35 percent, to 1,530.24. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 6.28, or 1.33 percent, to 476.77.
Advancing issues were ahead of decliners on the New York Stock Exchange by more than 3 to 1. Consolidated volume came to an extremely light 1.71 billion shares, compared to 1.4 billion in an abbreviated session on Wednesday, and 3.63 billion in a full session on Tuesday.
For the week, the Dow ended down 0.74 percent, the S&P 500 fell 1.7 percent and the Nasdaq lost 2.17 percent.
Although there was selling early in the week on bad economic news, Wall Street still extended a streak of relatively tranquil trading after the extreme volatility of September, October and November. Many analysts believe the market has found a bottom after the lows it reached Nov. 20, although no one is ready to say Wall Street won't see more heavy losses.
As the year winds down, investors are flummoxed over what 2009 might bring.
"It's hard to imagine another year that is going to be as dismal or dark or bad as 2008," Johnson said. "It's even hard to imagine that we have another down year in 2009 -- the odds are the stock market will be higher at the end of 2009. Common sense tells you that."
The Dow is down 35.8 percent for the year, while the S&P 500 is down 40.56 percent and the Nasdaq is off 42.3 percent. Since peaking in October 2007, the Dow has lost 39.88 percent, the S&P 500 is down 44.24 percent and the Nasdaq has skidded 46.48 percent.
But, Johnson added, it's impossible to forecast the end of a bear market, and "confidence can turn on a dime."
Besides the consumer confidence report on Tuesday, the market will be waiting for the Institute for Supply Management's report on the manufacturing sector for December. That will be released Friday.
Trading is likely to remain light next week as many investors remain on vacation for the holidays.
On Friday, the dollar was down against other major currencies, while gold prices rose.
Demand for government bonds increased. The three-month Treasury bill's yield fell to 0.01 percent from 0.02 percent late Wednesday, and the 10-year Treasury note's yield fell to 2.14 percent from 2.19 percent.
Light, sweet crude rose $2.36 to $37.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude prices had tumbled Wednesday for the ninth straight day -- dipping as low as $35.13 -- after gloomy economic reports and growing stockpiles of unused gasoline suggesting eroded demand.
GMAC notes shot higher on the news of the company's transformation into a bank. GMAC's 7.25 percent note due to mature in 2033 rose 88.5 percent to $9.67 from $5.13 on Wednesday. But analysts were wary of the big price move, noting that volume was thin, and saying there is still much to be resolved about the company's finances.
Japan on Friday reminded U.S. investors that the recession is not isolated to the United States. Japanese automakers and other manufacturers cut output last month by 8.1 percent -- the biggest decrease since records began in 1953 -- in the face of slowing demand overseas.
Despite the plunge, Japan's Nikkei stock index rose 1.63 percent.
In other overseas trading, Hong Kong markets were closed, as were those in Britain, Germany and France.
The Dow Jones industrial average ended the week down 63.56, or 0.74 percent, at 8,515.55. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 15.08, or 1.7 percent, at 872.80. The Nasdaq composite index ended the week down 34.08, or 2.17 percent, at 1,530.24.
The Russell 2000 index finished the week down 9.49, or 1.96 percent, at 476.77.
The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index -- a free-float weighted index that measures 5,000 U.S. based companies -- ended at 8,769.35, down 154.62 points, or 1.73 percent, for the week. A year ago, the index was at 14,911.63.
[Why ForexGen]1. Lowest spreads in the market with 0-1 pip spread in 10 pairs, no commissions, no swaps and instant account Activation.
2. Scandinavian quality with Swiss precision, funds secured and local agents in 18+ countries.
3. ForexGen offers Forex trading in the major currency pairs and crosses.
4. Low capital start, with $250 as a minimum account size.
5. Liquidity and 24/5 availability are the characteristic factors of the Forex market compared with other financial markets.
6. [ForexGen] offers a free trial Forex [demo account] that allows you to test your skills and practice without risking real money.
Sunday 28 December 2008
Japan Industrial Output Logs Record Fall
Export-reliant Asian economies showed more signs of weakness on Friday, with Japan's industrial output diving at a record pace and South Korea warning it faces an "unprecedented crisis" as global demand wilts.
Even the once unstoppable Chinese economy is feeling the strain, with companies recording a sharp slowdown in profit growth in the first 11 months of the year.
On top of Japan's steep fall in industrial output in November, core consumer inflation fell faster than forecast last month, putting the shrinking economy on course for a spell of deflation next year.
The grim outlook could push the Bank of Japan to implement unorthodox monetary easing measures as it has little room left to cut interest rates after reducing them to 0.10 percent last week.
But Japan's Economics Minister Kaoru Yosano said he doubted that any so-called quantitative easing by the Bank of Japan would directly lead to an increase in loans to companies to get the economy moving again.
Facing the worst international economic environment in more than eight decades, Yosano said his government would act flexibly on possible additional spending measures if conditions deteriorated further.
"We cannot rule out the possibility that Japan and other parts of the world may face even worse economic conditions," Yosano told Reuters in an interview.
Fears about possible deflation in Japan next year weighed on the yen, which fell in thin trade versus both the euro and the dollar.
But Japanese stock markets, long inured to dire prognoses and weak data, shrugged off the grim outlook, with the Nikkei average rising 1.6 percent to a six-week closing high.
MSCI's measure of stocks elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region added 0.1 percent, but is heading for a loss of more than 50 percent for 2008.
FALLING OFF A CLIFF
What started last year as a meltdown in the U.S. mortgage market has quickly spread across the globe, claiming some of Wall Street's top firms, causing hundreds of thousands of job losses and costing trillions of dollars in stimulus and rescue packages.
With much of the developed world in recession and emerging economies quickly losing steam, many economists think Japan's export-oriented economy could go through one of its sharpest contractions ever this quarter and next.
"Production is falling off a cliff," said Naoki Iizuka, senior economist at Mizuho Securities. "The Japanese economy is unlikely to bottom out until October-December next year as output is expected to remain very weak until then."
Industrial output fell 8.1 percent in November from a month earlier, posting the largest fall on record and exceeding a median market forecast for a 6.8 percent drop.
A slump in global demand and the recent rise of the yen have pummeled Japanese exporters, forcing Toyota Motor Corp, the world's most profitable car maker until recently, to forecast its first consolidated operating loss and warn of an unprecedented crisis.
"Production is falling like Niagara Falls. What's going on now is beyond what Toyota and Sony ever imagined. They just can't have a plan for the future now," said Mitsuru Saito, chief economist at Tokai Tokyo Securities.
World number-three steelmaker JFE Holdings, a big supplier to the auto industry, stepped up planned output cuts on Thursday in the face of plunging demand.
Total Japanese steel production for January-March is expected to fall by a third to its lowest in 40 years, the government forecast on Thursday.
KOREAN CRISIS
Across the Sea of Japan in South Korea, the mood was similarly grim.
"The Korean economy is faced with an unprecedented crisis with exports and domestic demand, the two pillars of economic growth, falling at the same time," the Ministry of Knowledge Economy said in a new year policy report.
The ministry said it would aim to boost 2009 exports to $450 billion from around $430 billion projected for this year.
Faced with slowing demand from export markets, China needed to take more steps to stimulate domestic consumption, central bank officials there said on Friday.
China's over-reliance on investment and exports has been exposed by the global financial crisis.
Profit growth at Chinese industrial firms rose 4.9 percent in January-November from a year earlier, down sharply from annual growth of 19.4 percent in the first eight months of the year, data on Friday showed.
But Yi Gang, a deputy governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), reiterated his confidence that the economy would find a bottom around the second quarter of next year.
"I am confident about China's growth next year -- the growth will be relatively stable at about 8 percent," Yi said. "And inflation will be low."
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ForexGen offers three types of business partnerships.
* [Introducing Broker]
* [White Label]
* [Money Manager]
ForexGen Introducing Brokers ,White Label and Money Manager holders are recognized as a strategic business partners. The main focus of our service is to satisfy our partner's needs in order to deal with a qualified service and gain a large income sharing plan.
[ForexGen] provides appropriate services satisfying the needs of all business partner's specified situation and requirements.
Thursday 25 December 2008
Chinese Dairy in Milk Scandal Faces $160M Debt
Chinese dairy, declared bankrupt after tainted milk scandal, faces $160 million in debt 
he dairy at the center of China's tainted milk scandal has about $160 million in debt, state media reported Thursday, a day after the company confirmed it was bankrupt.
Xinhua News Agency said Sanlu Group Co. faces 1.1 billion yuan ($160 million) of net debt and that a branch of the Shijiazhuang City Commercial Bank was the creditor that applied to a court to have Sanlu declared bankrupt.
The Intermediate People's Court of Shijiazhuang, a city in Hebei province where Sanlu is based, accepted the filing, Xinhua said.
The report quoted Wang Jianguo, city spokesman, as saying that as of Oct. 31, the company's total assets were valued at 1.56 billion yuan ($227 million) while its total debts were 1.76 billion yuan ($256 million), the report said.
Xinhua said Sanlu also owes a creditor 902 million yuan ($132 million) in funds it borrowed earlier this month to pay for the medical treatment of children sickened after drinking the company's infant formula, and for compensation of the babies' families.
Calls to the spokesman's office of Shijiazhuang city government rang unanswered while a bank clerk who answered the phone at the Shijiazhuang City Commercial Bank said the bank's director was unavailable for comment. Sanlu's officials could not be reached.
Sanlu, like a number of major Chinese dairies, had been exempt from government inspections because it was deemed to have superior quality controls -- until high levels of the industrial chemical melamine were found in its baby formula and other products in September.
Several more dairies were also found to have doctored their goods in a scandal that was blamed for killing six babies and sickening 294,000 children.
The dairy scandal highlighted the widespread practice of adding melamine, often used in manufacturing plastics, to watered-down milk to fool protein tests. Investigations also discovered it was being added to animal feed after finding melamine-spiked eggs.
Melamine poses little danger in small amounts but larger doses can cause kidney stones and renal failure.
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Wednesday 24 December 2008
US Dollar Mixed in Europe
US dollar mixed, gold down in European morning trading
The U.S. dollar was mixed against other major currencies in European trading Wednesday morning. Gold fell.
The euro traded at $1.3980, up from $1.3963 late Tuesday in New York.
Other dollar rates:
--90.46 Japanese yen, up from 90.38
--1.0805 Swiss francs, down from 1.0848
--1.2134 Canadian dollars, down from 1.2188
The British pound was quoted at $1.4680, down from $1.4771.
Gold traded in London at $836.75 per troy ounce, down from $843.50 late Tuesday.
ForexGen offers three types of business partnerships:
*Introducing Broker
*White label
*Money Manager
ForexGen Introducing Brokers, White Label and Money Manager holders are recognized as a strategic business partners. The main focus of our service is to satisfy our partner's needs in order to deal with a qualified service and gain a huge income sharing plan.
[ForexGen] provide appropriate services satisfying the needs of all business partner's specified situation and requirements.
Tuesday 23 December 2008
British Pound Falls Further as Growth Figures Disappoint
The British pound fell for the fifth consecutive session to cross below 1.4800 as the final GDP reading for the third quarter was revised down to -0.6% from an initial reading of -0.5%. Deteriorating fundamentals paired with mounting growth fears have certainly taken a toll on Cable.
• Japanese Yen: Holds 90.00
• Pound: GDP Contracts 0.6% in 3Q, GBPUSD Slips Below 1.4800
• Euro: Pares Gains, Falls Below 1.4000
• US Dollar: GDP, Housing Data on Tap
British Pound Falls Further as Growth Figures Disappoint
The British pound fell for the fifth consecutive session to cross below 1.4800 as the final GDP reading for the third quarter was revised down to -0.6% from an initial reading of -0.5%. Deteriorating fundamentals paired with mounting growth fears have certainly taken a toll on Cable, and the currency is likely to face increased selling pressures over the coming months as market participants expect the Bank of England to ease policy further as growth prospects deteriorate at a rapid pace. As the market remains thin ahead of the New Year, increased volatility could drag the pound lower over the week.
Meanwhile, loans for home purchases in the U.K. fell to its lowest level since 1994 as the BBA index slipped to 17,773 from a revised reading of 20,767 in October, and conditions are likely to get worse as credit conditions remain far from normal. A separate report showed that service-based activity in the U.K. weakened further in October as the index of services fell another 0.2% following the 0.5% contraction in the previous month. Moreover, fading demands from home and abroad has certainly taken a toll on Europe’s second largest economy as the currency account deficit widened to -7.7B from a revised reading of -6.4B in the second quarter, and trade conditions are likely to deteriorate further as the major economies around the world head into a recession.
The Euro pared gains after reaching an intraday high of 1.4023, and slipped below 1.4000 against the dollar despite an unexpected improvement in the current account. The current account deficit unexpectedly narrowed to -6.4B from a revised reading of -8.8B in September on the back of lower oil prices, but conditions are likely to get worse as demands from the global economy falter. An empty European calendar for the remainder of the week will leave the Euro at the mercy of risk trends, and may face increased selling pressures as the flight to quality continues.
The final 3Q GDP reading for the US is unlikely to have an impact on trading as market participants expect the annualized growth figure to hold steady at -0.5%, but any revisions to the more important components of the report could spark increased volatility as trading volume in the markets remain thin. Nevertheless, the slew of housing data is likely to drive price action the greenback as new home sales are expected to fall another 3.6%, while existing home sales are anticipated to drop 1.0% from the previous month. In addition, the home price index is also projected to fall 1.3% for the second consecutive month, which continues to reflect a dour outlook for the world’s largest economy.
[ForexGen Introducing Brokers]
Introducing Brokers may be individuals or institutions who gain their income from the commissions and/or rebates by introducing customers to ForexGen trading.WHAT are the advantages of being an INTRODUCING BROKERS with ForexGen?
* Providing the most huge income sharing plan
* Providing several ways for our IB's to charge commission.
* ForexGen IB can also charge commission for each lot the traders execute.
* Moreover, ForexGen IB is able to increase the spread for all or certain clients and have ForexGen Investments rebate the difference.
In case the IB does not increase the spread or charge their clients a commission, ForexGen rebate the IB a minor predefined amount for every client's executed lot.
Commission is paid out every month.
Individualized Service
[ForexGen] offers our IB's individualized service created according to the individual needs and specified business situation for each IB.
Our Introducing Broker program provides a highly organized program for individualized services and organizations in order to introduce their clients to the online foreign currency exchange market, moreover they will enjoy the benefits of being a part of the ForexGen family.
ForexGen offers 1 pip spread on 10 pairs with high trading techniques that make [ForexGen]
incomparable to any other rival.
Monday 22 December 2008
Dollar Up as Investors Look to Central Banks
The dollar rose against the pound and yen Monday, but remained flat against the euro as investors weighed the possibility of further rate cuts from the Bank of England as well as market intervention by the Bank of Japan.
U.S. currency was virtually unmoved against the 15-nation euro, which rose 0.04 cents to $1.394. However, the dollar gained against the British pound, which fell 1.3 cents to $1.482, and rose ¥0.98 to ¥90.11 against the Japanese yen.
Over the past year, central banks around the world have been slashing interest rates and taking other measures to keep money flowing through the global economy.
"(These are) some of the most illiquid markets we have ever seen," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon in New York.
In order to keep the cash flowing in the U.S., the Federal Reserve cut a key interbank lending rate to between 0% and 0.25% last week, the bank's 10th cut since September 2007.
The dollar fell sharply in response, driving up the euro by nearly four cents.
Europe: In an effort to combat the rapid rise in euro value, last week the European Central Bank cut its deposit rate, the rate which the bank pays to deposit money, to 1% less than its own key interest rate.
The idea was to discourage investment from the dollar to the euro because an overly strong euro hurts the domestic economy, according to Woolfolk.
Japan: The Bank of Japan may be poised to take measures to control its currency as well, as it deals with the rising dollar.
"The Bank of Japan is very uncomfortable with the dollar-yen under 100 (yen)," said Woolfolk.
[ForexGen Money Manager]
An individual who is responsible for the entire financial portfolio of another individual or another entity. A money manager receives payment in exchange for choosing and monitoring appropriate investments for the client.
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* Liquidity and 24/5 availability are the characteristic factors of the Forex market compared with other financial markets.
Sunday 21 December 2008
ECB Situation Different to Fed on Rates: Bini Smaghi
The European Central Bank is in a very different situation to the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has cut interest rates almost to zero, ECB executive board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said in an interview published on Sunday.
Asked by the Rome daily Il Messaggero if the ECB is considering following the Fed's lead on rates, Bini Smaghi said the lending situation in the United States was worse than in Europe and warned about the risks of a too lax monetary policy.
"The United States' situation is very different from Europe's ... the (U.S) transmission mechanism works less well," Bini Smaghi was quoted as saying.
He pointed out that lending rates to businesses and consumers in the United States had remained as high as in the euro zone even though official Fed rates stand at just 0.00-0.25 percent compared with the ECB's key rate of 2.5 percent.
"We must not forget that the current crisis was caused by a period of interest rates taken to a very low level for too long," he added.
Bini Smaghi said financial markets showed signs of "slowly and gradually settling down" but said inter-bank lending rates needed to come down more quickly toward official ECB rates.
However, he expressed doubt that Euribor, the reference inter-bank lending rate, was a "transparent" and accurate reflection of inter-bank transactions.
He also urged banks to make loans more readily available to customers to limit the impact of the financial crisis on the real economy and called on banks to accept offers of public capital to improve confidence in the banking system.
"To reassure markets, the banks should increase their capital above prudential requirements, also by accepting public contributions," Bini Smaghi said.
He warned that survey data suggested banks plan to further tighten credit conditions and said this would be "self-harming" for the banks themselves as well as for the economy.
He called for the ECB to be given a greater role in financial supervision in Europe by increasing coordination between supervision over single institutions and vigilance over credit markets as a whole, which is in central bank hands.
The ECB should be given a role in the colleges charged with supervising big banking groups, he said.
Looking back over public policy in 2008, Bini Smaghi said that allowing the failure of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers had been a mistake and its consequences had been underestimated.
However, he defended the ECB's often criticized decision to raise interest rates in July, saying it was justified by inflation rates and expectations at the time and had also contributed to the subsequent sharp drop in inflation.
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Thursday 18 December 2008
Santa Gets Firsthand Look at Consumer Cutbacks
Santa says economic woes evident among holiday shoppers in the most troubled housing markets
Robert Ecker was bored with retirement, so he went back to work as a housing appraiser in Stockton, Calif. He trained four other appraisers during the real estate boom -- all of them are now out of the business.
"Since the real estate market closed down, I grew a beard and now I'm doing this," said Ecker, dressed in the trademark red suit with white trim.
"The older kids are asking for clothes now, rather than gifts," he said. "Most of them are asking for one gift."
From Stockton to Miami, from ritzy Las Vegas to gritty Detroit, cities with the worst real estate markets led the U.S. economy into recession. Skidding home prices and soaring foreclosures have magnified the broader woes of unemployment, stock market turmoil and hard-to-get loans. Holiday shoppers are making a list, checking it twice, and then scratching off the nonessentials.
"I used to buy what I need and what I like: a lot of shoes, clothes in general -- I love clothes," said Stephanie Guzman, who works at the Wireless Image kiosk at the Weberstown mall near Stockton. "I only buy what I need now -- I don't have money."
Last Friday, the Commerce Department said retail sales fell by almost 2 percent in November. It was the fifth month in a row -- a period of weakness never before seen on the government's retail sales records.
Stockton resident Debbie Rooker is shopping, but for more practical gifts this year.
"Less electronics and more clothing," said Rooker, whose family lives on her husband's pension and savings from his career as a firefighter. "We got a rocking chair for one daughter and a frying pan -- a nice one -- for a son."
At the Westland Mall in Hialeah, Fla., northwest of Miami, Katherine Cuevas and her husband run two kiosks, one selling perfume and cologne, the other hawking child's gifts like toy laser guns and fire engines.
Business is off 40 percent from last year, and the Cuevases have had to let go one of their employees and put in longer hours themselves.
"If you can't pay your mortgage on time, how are you going to spend your money on perfume? They'll make one perfume bottle last a year," said Katherine, 36.
Consumer cutbacks are affecting stores of all sizes this year. Among the early casualties: Sharper Image, Linens 'N Things and Circuit City, which are all in some stage of bankruptcy.
At the Dolphin Mall in the Miami area, general manager Pete Marrero says sales at the outlet stores have been buoyed by international visitors, but home goods may fall short of expectations.
One reason is that housewares retailer Linens 'N Things is closing its store there.
"This is sad to watch," says George Schafer, a retiree who sits in front of Linens 'N Things as he waits for his wife to plumb the store's massive discounts.
A few miles east in Coral Gables, Fla., the sidewalks of swanky Miracle Mile look like bowling lanes -- wide and empty. Lined with restaurants and shops that sell expensive jewelry and apparel, Miracle Mile has at least six store vacancies, including a Qdoba Mexican Grill and what once was an upscale furniture store.
Yaime Diaz, manager of a store that sells multi-pocketed Cuban-style shirts known as "guayaberas," says she's noticed that foot traffic is down on Miracle Mile.
"It's just not the same as last year," she says, surrounded by shirts colored blue, yellow and red -- hues that contrast with the drab wooden plywood covering the windows of the shuttered furniture store just steps away.
One of the few cities with more foreclosures than Miami is Las Vegas. In the suburb of Henderson, a La-Z-Boy Furniture Galleries store near the edge of a large shopping mall was empty on a Sunday afternoon, though the mall itself was fairly busy.
La-Z-Boy announced last month it would close some 15 to 20 stores and cut about 850 jobs. Store manager Kevin Durney said his financing department was turning down some customers looking to borrow money to pay for furniture who would have qualified with the same credit score last year.
"The spendable income isn't there," Durney said. "It's a little harder for (shoppers) to make decisions."
Economic worries certainly have engulfed Detroit and its suburbs, as the Big Three automakers seek to stave off the Grinch by asking for a government bailout of their industry.
In Harper Woods, Mich., the watches and belt buckles at Buckles Unlimited sparkle like ornaments on a Christmas tree. Owner Adam Naseh says he used to sell 100 belt buckles a day, but now is selling 20 or 30.
"People are basically afraid of investing, of spending money," he said.
The housing market, the economy, the auto industry -- the list is enough to stress out any merchant. And the shoppers are even more harried. Just ask the Santa Claus who has worked a Detroit-area mall for the past five years.
"The kids are fine," he said, sipping coffee in full Santa gear. "The parents are nuts."
Associated Press Writers Donald Thompson in Stockton, Calif., Oskar Garcia in Las Vegas and Ben Leubsdorf in Michigan contributed to this report.
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Wednesday 17 December 2008
The Forex market Is Running In Numbers You Would Believe
The Forex market is running in numbers you would believe, peaking at almost 2 trillion dollars of trading DAILY. That is every day. As you are reading this article, billions of dollars are being traded in a 24-hour investment environment and people are making over hundreds of billions of dollars every day. Now Forex markets are a pretty niche investment corner of the capitalist market and there are only a few million people (in investment terms this is pretty little) actually actively involved in this, with a large piece of the pie dominated by big named companies and brokerage firms that pump in millions of dollars at a time to make a large profit. So it may seem a bit daunting but there are Forex trading systems that will ease you into a veritable bee hive of trading and investing, and allow you to be almost as effective in your understanding of the markets as those that have been in this for years and years.
Now Forex markets are very different from normal investment markets because it is a free floating market that can be accessed by internet from almost anywhere in the world. There is no physical place that limits this activity and you don’t need the access matrixes of some places like the NYSE or Wall Street to do your trading. While you can do this manually - do it only if you know what you are doing. I wouldn’t recommend anyone just allowing a brokers or a firm to do everything for you, having access to a system or a platform which you can access is great for a step by step and ‘all time’ scrutiny of the market and keeping track of your investments.
All order fills and communications are done through electronics and digital systems over fibre optics so the use of computers to do technical analysis or communicate with the broker are ideal for a system to come as the middle man that eases the process and makes things easier. A system is also more efficient and tracking and receipt analysis are almost always built into these Forex trading systems so you have the digital black and white and tracking options that you can customise to make sure you never miss a beat.
But I am sure that you understand that there is no risk free system and that risk is part and parcel of what you invest. Don’t allow a system to lead you to believe that everything will be taken care of, have the same level of diligence as this involves your money - sometimes a lot of money. A Forex trading system eases you in, holds your hand and stands by your side in communicating the difficult jargon and processes into an easy 17-inch layout and buttons. But it is up to you if you want to hire a financial advisor or a firm to further advise you on what to do. Literally, the ball is in your court.
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Tuesday 16 December 2008
British Pound Technical Outlook
I maintain that a multi-month rally in the GBPUSD is likely underway, possibly to as high as the mid 1.60s.
Near term, price appears ready to accelerate off of the short term support line. Staying above 1.4812 keeps the trend up. With 5 waves potentially nearing completion from there, a correction back to at least former support at 1.52 may begin soon.
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Monday 15 December 2008
Homebuilder Sentiment Index Remains at Record Low
Homebuilder sentiment index unchanged at record low of 9 in December 
A key gauge of homebuilders' confidence remained at a record low this month, as builders continued to be overwhelmingly discouraged in the prospects of a housing turnaround amid a worsening U.S. economy and rising unemployment and foreclosures.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index held at nine in December for the second month in a row.
Index readings higher than 50 indicate positive sentiment about the market. But the index has drifted below 50 since May 2006 and has been below 20 since April. The slide in builders' confidence sharpened this fall in the wake of the U.S. financial crisis, slipping three points in October and then five points in November.
"The crisis continues," NAHB Chairman Sandy Dunn said in a statement. "Congress and the Administration must step in with substantial incentives to bring qualified buyers back to the table as well as effective foreclosure relief programs if we are to end this negative spiral that is weighing so heavily on our national economy."
Homebuilders have asked Congress to enact a 10 percent tax credit of up to $22,000 for homebuyers that purchase a home over the next year. They also are seeking a temporary interest-rate reduction on 30-year mortgages.
Government incentives are needed, homebuilders contend, because many buyers are fearful of jumping into the housing market due to uncertainty over the economy and how much longer the three-year slide in home prices will continue.
"We have seen no improvement over the past month in terms of sales conditions for new homes," said David Crowe, the association's chief economist. "In fact, certain factors have gotten progressively worse, not the least of which is the job market, where massive layoffs are having a devastating effect on consumer confidence."
Major public builders such as D.R. Horton Inc., KB Home, and Centex Corp., have seen their stocks hammered as housing woes have worsened.
The latest builder index reflects a survey of 426 residential developers nationwide, tracking builders' perceptions of market conditions.
The builders' gauge of current sales conditions fell one point to eight, while expectations for sales over the next six months declined two points to 16, the NAHB said.
The index of foot traffic by prospective buyers remained unchanged at a record low of seven.
Regionally, builder confidence declined in the Midwest by one point to six. In the South, it slipped two points to 10. The index held steady in the Northeast at 11 and rose in the West by one point to seven.
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