Wednesday, 7 January 2009

Inside Day Breakouts

An inside day is one where trading is contained within the trading range of the previous day.
The volatility breakout strategy entails entering a trade on a stop order above or below the range that has been previously trading - with the expectation that since a breakout has occured price will continue to move in that direction.

Volatility breakout systems are based on idea that if the market moves a certain percentage from a previous price level, the market is likely to see follow through in that direction. In this scenario you are looking for a continuation of the move based on momentum.
One should look for a series of inside days to implement this strategy, and the greater the number of inside days that transpire, the higher the probability of a breakout.
Also, the longer the timeframe used, the stronger the breakout opportunity - hourly and daily timeframes are the best to use.

This strategy is also best used with pairs that see tighter ranges - these are typically the crosses - currency pairs that do not have the USD as part of the pairing such as the EUR/GBP and the EUR/CHF.

Inevitably there will be false breakouts, as the interbank dealers try to trigger the stop orders just outside the breakout levels.
In order to avoid being caught in a false breakout situation, enter your trade with a stop order at least 10-15 pips above the breakout level - meaning the levels above or below the trading range depending on whether the market is breaking out to the upside or downside.
(In case you are not clear on this - a stop order is one that is placed above or below where the market is currently trading and becomes a market order when the market touches the price where the stop was entered. A buy stop is placed above the market and a sell stop is placed below.)

Again one can look to the ADX as an indicator to whether the market is still range bound or beginning to trend one way or another.
Stay away from inside day breakout trade if the ADX is below 20 and trending downward.
The breakout strategy is valuable in that it teaches the trader to do something that is normally counter intuitive - that is to buy the high or sell the low. Novice traders are more likely to try to pick tops and bottoms.
Often the breakout will occur in a fast moving market, making decisiveness even harder. However, if your strategy is in place and you have identified the opportunity, you will be ahead of the game.

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Monday, 3 November 2008

Finding the Best Forex Scalping Systems For Big Profits

Forex scalping is a method of trying to take many small profits and build up big consistent profits over time, with low risk. Here we will look at the best forex scalping systems and how to day trade for profit…

I have been looking for the best forex scalping system since I first started trading and still haven’t even found one that makes money! Today, you see lots of them advertising big gains - but there is a problem and it’s the risk warning below:

“CFTC RULE 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown”.

So all the day trading records you see aren’t real dollars, there paper dollars made on paper knowing exactly what the prices did! This really should not be presented a track record as a child could do it.

So now we know all the systems advertise track records that are not real, why doesn’t someone break the mould and publish one - say, 2 or 3 years supported by broker account statements - or why doesn’t the vendor trade it for real?

Well the answer is that forex scalping is based upon flawed logic and is doomed to fail long term.

Just like the punter playing roulette in the casino as you never can get the odds in your favor.

If you can’t get the odds on your side you won’t win.

In day trading, all daily volatility is random and takes prices anywhere - so how can you key off support or resistance levels? You can’t, you may as well flip a coin.

Think about this …

In all corners of the globe, there are traders like me and you - all with our own opinions skills and emotions at work and countless millions of us make the price you see on your computer screen, so how can you tell what this vast mass of forex traders will do in a few hours? You can’t.

You do here scalpers talk about the science of human behavior and all need to do is know the law of it and you can win - great theory but no one has achieved it and if of course there was a scientific theory, then we would all know the price in advance and there would be no market.

These systems feed on greed and naivety and marketing companies know this.

So they write some nice copy of how you can make X million for doing nothing put up a track record that is totally unbelievable and based on sand i.e a paper simulation, not proven or tested or anything, just a simulation and wait for people to buy and they do.

The company gets a system sale and the FX trader a loss.

You can make a lot of money in forex trading but not by using a forex scalping system. Leave them to the lazy traders and get yourself some sound forex education, on trading long term forex trends for profit and you can enjoy currency trading success.

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