Monday 24 November 2008

Wherever you look on the net

you will say adverts for forex scalping and day trading systems which promise regular profits that can make you rich but there is a problem, none of them work, because forex scalping is based on logic that simply is not correct...
The problem of course is prices are determined by humans and I such short time spans as a day you have no way of knowing which way prices are going to go.
Millions of traders all using different methods and governed by the emotions of greed and fear cannot be predicted in such short time spans. This means that daily volatility is random, prices can and do go anywhere in a day and support and resistance is meaningless.

You will always see track records that make huge profits presented but they are all done knowing the closing prices! Let's face it if a track record looks to good to be true it normally is and this applies to forex scalping and day trading systems.
You can simply look for a disclaimer and you will normally find this one or similar on any track record.
"CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN".

Of course if we all knew today's prices in advance, we would all be rich but we don't.
Forex trading is harder - you have to trade going forward not backwards.
Vendors who sell these systems simply use hyped copy and a simulated track record to appeal to naïve or greedy traders - they know the system doesn't work, so they don't bother trading it - they simply make up a track record.
Despite the hype, forex scalping doesn't work and you need to trade the odds to win and that simply is not possible in short time frames.
There are two ways to make money in forex trading, you can either swing trade which takes advantage of trends that last for a few days to a few weeks, or long term trend follow which takes advantage of moves that last for weeks or months.
If you want to enjoy currency trading success, you need to trade the odds - to do this you must have valid data and data within a day or less is not valid.
Forex trading is not easy and you wouldn't expect it to be with the rewards on offer but if you learn forex trading the right way and spend some time on your forex education, you can make big profits and for the effort you put in no other business offers you more in terms of rewards.
So forget forex scalping systems and look to trade the odds, using valid data and this will lead you to currency trading success.
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